09:45 AM - 11:15 AM
26 October 2022

CE Mag: Wind Loads and Climate Change

Multi-Discipline Technical

Hurricanes are among the most costly natural hazards affecting communities worldwide, and involve different hazard sources (i.e., wind, windborne debris, flood, and rain). The intensity of future hurricanes is generally expected to increase due to climate change effects. This presentation will illustrate a novel probabilistic Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering (PBHE) framework that disaggregates the risk assessment analysis into independent elementary components and innovatively accounts for concurrent, interacting, and cascading hazard sources. The PBHE framework is extended to account for hazard non-stationarity due to climate change and vulnerability non-stationarity due to structural aging. Using a recently-developed wind speed projection model and the climate projections in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, the loss analysis for a benchmark low-rise single-family house over a 50-year design service life is performed. For this application example, the combined effects of climate change and structural aging can increase the expected total losses during a 50-year service design life by as much as 106% when compared to the case with no climate change and no structural aging.

The attendees will:
• Be introduced to PBHE and its underlying principles;
• Acquire specific performance-based design strategies to address climate change effects;
• Be appraised of predicted climate change effects on the performance of single-family homes.