Historically underserved and socially vulnerable communities in the United States are often located behind levees, exposing them to compounded risks from deteriorating flood-protection infrastructure and intensifying climate change-driven extreme events. This study uses an interdisciplinary methodology to quantify climate change impacts on flood-protection infrastructure resiliency, focusing on a case-study levee in Pajaro, California.
Peak flow frequency changes, based on parameters linking current design recurrence intervals to future requirements, are used to adapt designs to evolving hydrologic conditions. A simplified, physically-based breach model is employed to construct a parametrized surrogate model. Progressive Latin Hypercube sampling and logistic regression are then utilized to estimate failure probabilities, resulting in multivariate fragility functions. These functions incorporate parameter variations without requiring system reanalysis, advancing risk assessment and planning processes.
The findings highlight critical vulnerabilities and offer insights to inform mitigation, planning, and preparedness strategies. This research underscores the importance of proactive climate adaptation practices to build resilient communities and sustainable flood-protection systems by emphasizing environmental justice. Future applications of our work include integrating the breach peak outflow model with hydraulic inundation modeling to probabilistically estimate downstream inundation areas.
