Future Conditions: Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Infrastructure systems, such as energy, transport, water, and digital networks, are increasingly vulnerable to environmental hazards due to their complexity and long lifespans. Traditional decision-making approaches often fail to address the transformative changes required to adapt these systems to climate change, urbanization, and other socio-economic shifts. A critical challenge is managing deep uncertainty, where relationships between key drivers are unpredictable, and future outcomes lack consensus. Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) offers an adaptive framework that prioritizes "monitor and adapt" strategies over "predict and act." This approach enhances resilience by preparing for a range of plausible futures rather than relying on precise forecasts. 
An example of DMDU’s utility is in addressing sea level rise, where uncertainties in Antarctic ice dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions demand robust, flexible strategies for coastal systems. Traditional cost-benefit analyses often fall short in such contexts, highlighting the need for adaptive methodologies. The Committee on Adaptation to Climate Change (CACC) is spearheading an initiative to integrate DMDU into infrastructure planning and American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) standards. This includes reviewing current methodologies, presenting state-of-the-art case studies, and formulating recommendations for embedding DMDU techniques. 
The proposed 60 to 90-minute panel will convene experts to discuss the concepts and applications of DMDU, focusing on dynamically adaptive policy pathways and future tipping points. Through technical presentations and interactive audience engagement, the panel aims to demonstrate DMDU’s potential to guide sustainable, adaptive planning for critical infrastructure under deeply uncertain conditions.